Much has been written about WiMax recently, and most of it hasn't been very promising.  First, in a Wi-Fi Networking News article from November of last year (authored by Glenn Fleishman and quoting Robert Berger extensively) stirred quite a lot of chatter within the blogsphere (it is January and I am still getting the link in some e-mails from my friends in the wireless industry).  Perhaps Berger comes out looking like a bit of a WiMax basher when he said that WiMax is "another zero billion dollar industry" with "no products". 

Of course, we know that not to be the case (just as an example, documented right here on TF was Alvarion's win with Altitude Telecom in France last year). Also, despite the fact that Intel hasn't started shipping out the Rosedale chip just yet, that does not mean that there are "no products" in the marketplace.  For instance, Redline Communications (just up the road from where I work) already has had products on the marketplace for quite sometime, lining up over 5,000 installations and 60 countries (granted, Redline was the first one to introduce an 802.16 compliant product).  Other independent chipset manufacturers (Sequans and WaveSat) already have silicon sampling (still seeking to achieve 802.16 certification) with big customers. 

But more naysayers (such as Om Malik) pointed out delays in the WiMax certification process, and how those are tied to a lack of chips from Intel.  No doubt about it, until Intel actually starts to back its own plans with actions instead of words, the industry will not take off as fast.  It is hard to argue against that.  I have also pointed out a few other restraints in a previous note (including the reluctance of carriers to deploy anything in unlicensed frequency bands).  Of course, the merger action has not helped (Sprint and Nextel now are the only holders of such spectrum, and the new AT&T plus SBC might not be as interested to pursue its WiMax strategy, considering the huge Cingular/AT&T Wireless network it can now leverage).  Another huge factor that not too many people are writing about are the challenges in the IEEE 802.16e subgroup, as it tries to define mobility specs for WiMax (the ratification of 802.16e will still take time, probably at least until the latter part of this year).

So does that all mean that WiMax, as it was originally hyped up ("the broadband wireless standard of the future"), is dead?  Is it just a glorified backhaul access technology?  Of course not.  In answering that question, it is important to get quite a few points across first:

1- Check the history of 802.11 and how much time it took for the standard to develop and mature.  Why are people getting so impatient with WiMax, and declaring it "dead on arrival"?

2- 802.11 is not the answer to nomadic broadband access over a wide area.  WiFi really was geared towards the enterprise LAN space, the home consumer market, or public operation in confined areas (e.g. your local Starbucks or an airport lounge).  By contrast, WiMax is a MAN-type solution that 802.11 really was never geared to be.  That's why the way I view WiMax is more complementary than competing against WiFi.   

3- For greenfields (e.g. broadband for developing countries), WiMax can be deployed much quicker than ADSL or broadband cable, and the CPE costs should be pretty comparable in the future (circa 2007-2008).  This point needs to be understood - "emerging markets" want to get to progress by taking the quantum leap, rather than evolving the networks following the same footsteps of our telcos.  Just like there was a good correlation between GDP growth and teledensity, there must be another similar relationship between GDP growth and broadband access.  These emerging markets want to make that transition and increase the penetration of broadband as soon as possible.  And the people in these countries want that progress to be achieved quickly, too.  Just think of all the color TVs inside the favelas (shantytowns) in Rio.  Therefore, there is still ample time and opportunity for WiMax to really flourish in these areas.

4- Even in countries like the U.S., in competing against DSL and cable, WiMax still has one key differentiator: nomadic access.   Of course, WiFi can also offer that, but not with such a long reach.  Therefore, WiMax could find a beachhead with alternative carriers and mobile operators.  Plus, WiMax can also serve to extend ADSL networks into rural areas, for instance.  No doubt about it, WiMax will face competition from other fixed wireless technologies, but here is where the marketing machine of vendors such as Intel comes into play.

Other industry catalysts include a partnership between a next-gen carrier offering WiMax and an electric utility.  In such a partnership, the utility would act as a landlord, and lease its feeder networks as a backhaul access to the wireless broadband service provider.  Maybe some of these next-gen operators can also work out cheap access with localized, targeted advertising on a WiMax client device (the ads would change dynamically, depending on the region of a city that the user is).  

Bottom line is WiMax still is a nascent industry, but there is still time for it to develop as something more than just backhaul access.  Costs will come down, as vendors such as Intel and Fujitsu further refine their 802.16 chips.  As the standard gets solidified more high-volume low-cost manufacturers will be attracted to WiMax.